Question

Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?

Resolved:No

19 comments19

Total Forecasters299

Community Prediction

18%

(9% - 28%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 18%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

66.3

Community Peer Score

25.3

Authors:

Adrian

Opened:

Apr 23, 2016

Closes:

Jun 1, 2017

Resolves:

Jan 16, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 24, 2016

Environment & Climate

Technology

2016-2020 Leaderboard

Time is running out to curb climate change: Window to avoid 1.5°C of warming will close in just 3 YEARS if CO2 emissions continue at current rate, scientists warn

Daily Mail•Jun 19, 2025

Only two years left of world’s carbon budget to meet 1.5C target, scientists warn

Guardian•Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?

97%

How much global warming by 2100?

3.14

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%