70 comments
118 forecasters
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?
0.7%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Apr 12, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolved:Jan 8, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 15, 2024
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
5% chance
206
How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?
84.2 cases
(70.9 - 120)
84.2 cases
(70.9 - 120)
52 forecasters
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
1% chance
97