Question

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?

Resolved:No

70 comments70

Total Forecasters118

Community Prediction

0.7%

(0.1% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.7%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

13.7

Community Baseline Score

87.7

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Apr 12, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 15, 2024

Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

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Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

87.1

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

1.2%