70 comments
118 forecasters
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?
0.7%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Authors:
Opened:Apr 12, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolved:Jan 8, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 15, 2024
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
2% chance
224
How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?
78.1 cases
(69.4 - 97.4)
78.1 cases
(69.4 - 97.4)
90 forecasters
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
1% chance
111