40 comments
71 forecasters
Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?
Anthropic / Claude 4 Opusresult: No
Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra4.2%
OpenAI / GPT-53%
Authors:
Opened:May 6, 2024
Closed:Aug 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Sep 1, 2025
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
99 forecasters
Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?
25% chance
1.4k
What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?
91 forecasters