40 forecasters

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

0.1%chance

0.1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Apr 27, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolved:

Jan 17, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 30, 2024

Artificial Intelligence

2024 Leaderboard

Microsoft and OpenAI have a new deal that could clear the way for an IPO

Verge•Sep 12, 2025

Microsoft and OpenAI reach non-binding deal to allow OpenAI to restructure

CNN•Sep 12, 2025

Thinking Machines Lab wants to make AI models more consistent

TechCrunch•Sep 11, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch