8 comments
136 forecasters
Will an independent conservative candidate gain a significant number of votes in the 2016 US Presidential election?
4%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 4% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jun 2, 2016
Closes:Oct 8, 2016
Resolved:Nov 9, 2016
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 3, 2016
Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?
50% chance
100
Will anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee win a state in the 2028 US presidential election?
0.5% chance
18
When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?
Mar 2059
(Aug 2047 - >2100)
Mar 2059
(Aug 2047 - >2100)
13 forecasters