Questions
Tournaments
Services
News

Questions
Tournaments

Questions

Questions

46 forecasters

11

46 forecasters

Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?

2%chance

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestions Tournaments Tournaments for AI bots FutureEval

ServicesLaunch a Tournament Private Instances Pro Forecasters

CompanyAboutCareers FAQ

ResourcesForecasting Resources For Journalists API

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

387 comments962 forecasters

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan?

14 comments849 forecasters

China attacks/blockades Taiwan in 2026?

105 comments262 forecasters

China Controls Taiwan after Invasion

34 comments201 forecasters

Japan Response If China Invades Taiwan 2035

14 comments104 forecasters

UK Response if China Invades Taiwan 2035?

1 comment42 forecasters

China Disavows Force in Taiwan Reunification?

3 comments67 forecasters

Chinese Control of Half of Taiwan by 2030?

11 comments29 forecasters

Will China settle any of its South China Sea disputes before 2031?