Question
Before January 1, 2026, what will be the highest compression factor achieved for the Hutter Prize?
Total Forecasters6
Community Prediction
9.02
(8.92 - 9.18)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 8.916 | — |
| median | 9.024 | — |
| upper 75% | 9.182 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >11 | 0.2% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:May 9, 2024
Closes:Dec 30, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Feb 2, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:May 12, 2024
In the following years, what will be the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark?
93.5
What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?
97.1
What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?
98.2
Authors:
Opened:May 9, 2024
Closes:Dec 30, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Feb 2, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:May 12, 2024
In the following years, what will be the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark?
93.5
What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?
97.1
What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?
98.2