Question

When will Palestine become a full UN member state?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters14

Community Prediction

Oct 2041

(Feb 2034 - Mar 2058)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>Jan 2075
community	Feb 2034	Oct 2041	Mar 2058	15.7%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	Feb 2034	—
median	Oct 2041	—
upper 75%	Mar 2058	—
Upper bound
>Jan 2075	15.7%	—

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Opened:

May 16, 2024

Closes:

Dec 30, 2074

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2075

Spot Scoring Time:

May 19, 2024

Geopolitics

A viable Palestinian state remains far off, despite growing international clamor

CNN•Aug 2, 2025

Statehood remains a distant dream for Palestinians as nightmare unfolds in Gaza

Associated Press•Aug 1, 2025

Map: The 147 UN member states which recognise the state of Palestine - as Canada, the UK and France plan to follow suit

Independent•Aug 1, 2025

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