52 comments
44 forecasters
If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
Authors:
Opened:May 14, 2024
Closes:Mar 1, 2025
Resolved:Feb 13, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:May 17, 2024
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If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
0.877%
(0.445 - 1.43)
0.877%
(0.445 - 1.43)
38 forecasters
How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?
78.1 cases
(69.4 - 97.4)
78.1 cases
(69.4 - 97.4)
90 forecasters
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
2% chance
182