Question

Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?

Resolved:No

7 comments7

Total Forecasters83

Community Prediction

(0.5% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

92.6

Community Peer Score

9.2

Authors:

Langley

Opened:

May 20, 2024

Closes:

Jun 14, 2024

Resolves:

Jun 15, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

May 22, 2024

🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Populist leader suggests ahead of NATO summit that Slovakia might be better off neutral

•Jun 18, 2025

Populist leader suggests ahead of NATO summit that Slovakia might be better off neutral

Associated Press•Jun 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be legal consequences for Peter Murrell's involvement in the Scottish National Party's financial irregularities?

77%

Will any court sentence Luigi Mangione to death before 2030?

20%

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

20%

Authors:

Langley

Opened:

May 20, 2024

Closes:

Jun 14, 2024

Resolves:

Jun 15, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

May 22, 2024

🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Populist leader suggests ahead of NATO summit that Slovakia might be better off neutral

•Jun 18, 2025

Populist leader suggests ahead of NATO summit that Slovakia might be better off neutral

Associated Press•Jun 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be legal consequences for Peter Murrell's involvement in the Scottish National Party's financial irregularities?

77%

Will any court sentence Luigi Mangione to death before 2030?

20%

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

20%