Question
Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth?
Forecast Timeline
Total Forecasters 43
Make a Prediction
| Kp Index | My Prediction | Me | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Resolved6.0 to 6.667 | 97.4% | |||
Less than 5.0 | 0.1% | |||
5.0 to 5.667 | 0.1% | |||
7.0 to 7.667 | 1.4% | |||
8.0 to 8.667 | 0.5% | |||
9.0 | 0.5% | |||
Total: ?
(? remaining)Which of these actually happened?6.0 to 6.667
Community Peer Score
35.9
Community Baseline Score
44.0
Authors:
Opened:May 31, 2024
Closes:Jun 15, 2024
Resolves:Jun 15, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 2, 2024
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 5 and less than or equal to 6?
35%
Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 4 and less than or equal to 6?
62%
Between July 1 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 8?
75%
Authors:
Opened:May 31, 2024
Closes:Jun 15, 2024
Resolves:Jun 15, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 2, 2024
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 5 and less than or equal to 6?
35%
Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 4 and less than or equal to 6?
62%
Between July 1 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 8?
75%