Question

Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?

Resolved:No

5 comments5

Total Forecasters155

Community Prediction

(3% - 12%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

31.1

Community Baseline Score

59.6

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Jun 15, 2016

Closes:

Jun 15, 2018

Resolves:

Dec 27, 2019

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 16, 2016

Pandemic Series (2018)

Environment & Climate

Natural Sciences

Health & Pandemics

2016-2020 Leaderboard

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

Sep 2045

Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?

27%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%