5 comments
155 forecasters
Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?
5%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 5% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jun 15, 2016
Closes:Jun 15, 2018
Resolved:Dec 27, 2019
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 16, 2016
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?
Sep 2045
(Dec 2031 - Apr 2067)
Sep 2045
(Dec 2031 - Apr 2067)
15 forecasters
Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?
27% chance
28
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?
23% chance
225