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1
16
forecasters
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16 forecasters
Conditional Cup
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condition
2024 US election considered fraudulent?
Resolved:
No
16 forecasters
if yes
if no
Faithless electors in US 2024 Election?
51%
51%
Resolved:
Annulled
Faithless electors in US 2024 Election?
45%
45%
Resolved:
No
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51%
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112 forecasters
US court block election result because of fraud in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
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2025-2026
9%
2027-2028
15%
7 comments
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Will the 2026 midterms be considered "free and fair"?
85%
chance
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State not submitting electoral votes to Congress on time in these elections?
2021-2022
Annulled
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
Annulled
2027-2028
5%
0 comments
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Will the House seat a legislator who was not certified winner before July 2027?
5%
chance
0 comments
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Election result blocked by US court due to foreign interference in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
5%
2027-2028
8%
0 comments
103 forecasters
Losing US presidential candidate not conceding in these elections?
2021-2022
Annulled
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
Annulled
2027-2028
42%
7 comments
32 forecasters
Widespread non-citizen voting occur in 2026 U.S. midterms?
1%
chance
4 comments
194 forecasters
Will court change winner of '26 election for House, Senate or statewide office?
6%
chance