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287 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
25%chance
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Opened:Jan 13, 2019
Closes:Dec 31, 2099
Scheduled resolution:Jun 15, 2101
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 14, 2019
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
25% chance
422
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
33% chance
404
Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
49% chance
82