21 comments
303 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%chance
4 pp this week
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Jan 13, 2019
Closes:Dec 31, 2099
Scheduled resolution:Jun 15, 2101
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 14, 2019
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
28% chance
433
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
35% chance
413
Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
48% chance
83