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161 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
8%chance
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Opened:Jan 13, 2019
Closes:Dec 31, 2099
Scheduled resolution:Jun 15, 2101
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 14, 2019
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
23.9% chance
34
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
28% chance
433
If a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
10% chance
42