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81 forecasters
Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?
32%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 32% chance, and it resolved No.
Authors:
Opened:Jun 15, 2016
Closes:Jun 15, 2017
Resolved:Jan 4, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 16, 2016
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?
22.8% chance
225
Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?
25% chance
160
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?
3% chance
54