Question

Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?

Resolved:No

1 comment1

Total Forecasters81

Community Prediction

32%

(19% - 43%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 32%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

18.4

Community Baseline Score

42.3

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Jun 15, 2016

Closes:

Jun 15, 2017

Resolves:

Jan 4, 2020

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 16, 2016

Pandemic Series (2018)

Natural Sciences

Health & Pandemics

2016-2020 Leaderboard

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

25%

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?