274
3.3k forecasters
Will there be a "World War Three" before 2050?
25%chance
Top Key Factors
Trends of de-escalation since WWII due to globalisation, culture shift, and nuclear deterrence
Decreases Likelihood
The political terror scale, political insecurity, and neighboring country relations have reached their worst score since the inception of the Global Peace Index, suggesting increased potential for conflict escalation.
Increases Likelihood
All five geographical regions defined by SIPRI saw rises in military spending for the first time since 2009, with Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Oceania recording particularly large increases.
Increases Likelihood
AGI/ASI coming soon
Increases Likelihood
The PRC's support for Russia's defense industrial base has been identified by NATO as increasing the threat to Euro-Atlantic security, potentially escalating tensions that could lead to a broader conflict.
Increases Likelihood
The United States has activated contingency plans to save Taiwan, which includes the use of tactical nuclear weapons, indicating a potential for nuclear escalation in the region.
Increases Likelihood
China-US conflict over Taiwan will happen not happen on the ground
Decreases Likelihood
Base rate for population-equivalent of 10M casualties is high
Increases Likelihood
Russia's military expenditure increased by almost 30% in 2023, with the Kremlin spending roughly 7.5% of its GDP on the military.
Increases Likelihood