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1
7 forecasters
1
1 comment
7 forecasters
Elections
condition

2024 US popular vote: 3rd party at least 5%?

Resolved:No
7 forecasters
if yes
if no

2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote?

50%
50%
Resolved:Annulled

2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote?

75%
75%
Resolved:Yes
if Yes50%
if No(Yes)
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

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5 comments25 forecasters

US States Won by Non-Major Parties in 2028

1%chance
8 comments103 forecasters

Third party wins US Senate election by 2050

48%chance
5 comments50 forecasters

Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election?

Democratic Party59.9%
Republican Party40%
Other0.1%
4 comments4 forecasters

Change in Average Inflation Rate 2028 PV Prediction

"Change in Average Inflation Rate" will correctly predict the 2028 Popular Vote Winner60%
"Change in Average Inflation Rate" will be below 0% for the 2028 election40%
16 comments161 forecasters

Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

61%chance
5 comments15 forecasters

POTUS Elections: 3rd Party Takes 2nd Place

Current estimate
Sep 2061
7 comments48 forecasters

Will the 2026 midterms be considered "free and fair"?

85%chance
2 comments93 forecasters

Markets give >20% to a twice-elected president's renomination in these years?

2021-2022result: No
2023-2024result: No
2025-20264%
2027-202815%