Question

Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?

Resolved:No

4 comments4

Total Forecasters131

Community Prediction

15%

(6% - 27%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 15%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

61.4

Community Peer Score

27.0

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Jun 15, 2016

Closes:

Dec 15, 2017

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 16, 2016

Pandemic Series (2018)

Natural Sciences

Geopolitics

Health & Pandemics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

Sep 2045

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?