Will bioproduct development costs go ↓ 100x?

conditional

condition

High fidelity fermentation test <$10 by 2035?

4 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will bioproduct development costs go ↓ 100x?

60%

Will bioproduct development costs go ↓ 100x?

20%

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High fidelity fermentation test <$10 by 2035?	Will bioproduct development costs go ↓ 100x?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 60%

Forecast Timeline

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if No

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Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jul 3, 2024

Closes:

Dec 30, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2045

Synthetic Biology at Scale

Economy & Business

Technology

Will a high fidelity fermentation test that costs under $10 be commercially available before 2035?

8.4%

Will the cost of developing a bioproduct be reduced by 100x before 2045, compared with 2024?

54.9%

Will gasified lignocellulosic biomass and microbial gas fermentation scale to 500 million tons before 2050?

35%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jul 3, 2024

Closes:

Dec 30, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2045

Synthetic Biology at Scale

Economy & Business

Technology

Will a high fidelity fermentation test that costs under $10 be commercially available before 2035?

8.4%

Will the cost of developing a bioproduct be reduced by 100x before 2045, compared with 2024?

54.9%

Will gasified lignocellulosic biomass and microbial gas fermentation scale to 500 million tons before 2050?

35%