Synthetic protein fibers 10% of production?

conditional

condition

2030: Synth protein fiber cheaper than nylon?

2 forecasters

if yes

if no

Synthetic protein fibers 10% of production?

Oct 2033

Synthetic protein fibers 10% of production?

Oct 2059

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2030: Synth protein fiber cheaper than nylon?	Synthetic protein fibers 10% of production?
if yes	My Prediction: -
if no	My Prediction: -

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CDF

	<01 Jan 2030	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>Jan 2075
community	0.3%	Dec 2032	Oct 2033	Sep 2034	0.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<01 Jan 2030	0.3%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	Dec 2032	—
median	Oct 2033	—
upper 75%	Sep 2034	—
Upper bound
>Jan 2075	0.1%	—

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CDF

	<01 Jan 2030	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>Jan 2075
community	0.3%	Dec 2032	Oct 2033	Sep 2034	0.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<01 Jan 2030	0.3%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	Dec 2032	—
median	Oct 2033	—
upper 75%	Sep 2034	—
Upper bound
>Jan 2075	0.1%	—

Forecast Timeline

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if No

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Authors:

BrunoParga

Opened:

Jul 3, 2024

Closes:

Jul 1, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jun 30, 2075

Synthetic Biology at Scale

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Technology

By 2030, will there be a synthetic protein fiber costing less than nylon?

When will synthetic-biology protein fibers reach 10% of the world's production?

Feb 2040

Will alternative protein have a market share above 25% of that of meat before 2035?

Authors:

BrunoParga

Opened:

Jul 3, 2024

Closes:

Jul 1, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jun 30, 2075

Synthetic Biology at Scale

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Technology

By 2030, will there be a synthetic protein fiber costing less than nylon?

When will synthetic-biology protein fibers reach 10% of the world's production?

Feb 2040