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3
12 forecasters
3
3 comments
12 forecasters
Elections
condition

Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?

Resolved:No
12 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will Joe Biden Grant Clemency to Hunter?

10%
10%
Resolved:Annulled

Will Joe Biden Grant Clemency to Hunter?

32%
32%
Resolved:Yes
if Yes10%
if No(Yes)
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16 comments161 forecasters

Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

61%chance
13 comments12 forecasters

People pardoned by noon (EST) Jan 20, 2029?

Sam Bankman-Fried15%
Elizabeth Holmes20%
Larry Householder42%
John Kiriakou10%
2 others
2 comments91 forecasters

≥10 US president-affiliated people to get a pardon/commutation in these years?

2021-2022result: No
2023-2024result: Yes
2025-2026result: Yes
2027-202895%
11 comments240 forecasters

Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for President of the United States?

Gavin Newsom26.1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez10.4%
Pete Buttigieg7.4%
Other43.5%
4 others
15 comments42 forecasters

Will a prominent Dem seek asylum before Jan 20, 2029?

7%chance
75 comments183 forecasters

Trump in power beyond 2028?

2.5%chance
0 comments30 forecasters

Democrat wins 2026 gubernatorial election in these states?

Ohio44.5%
Nevada53%
Kansas34%
Iowa58%
13 others
5 comments36 forecasters

Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before Jan 21, 2029?

25%chance