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3
12
forecasters
3
3 comments
12 forecasters
Elections
3 more...
condition
Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?
Resolved:
No
12 forecasters
if yes
if no
Will Joe Biden Grant Clemency to Hunter?
10%
10%
Resolved:
Annulled
Will Joe Biden Grant Clemency to Hunter?
32%
32%
Resolved:
Yes
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if Yes
10%
if No
(Yes)
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16 comments
161 forecasters
Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
61%
chance
13 comments
12 forecasters
People pardoned by noon (EST) Jan 20, 2029?
Sam Bankman-Fried
15%
Elizabeth Holmes
20%
Larry Householder
42%
John Kiriakou
10%
2 others
2 comments
91 forecasters
≥10 US president-affiliated people to get a pardon/commutation in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
Yes
2025-2026
result:
Yes
2027-2028
95%
11 comments
240 forecasters
Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for President of the United States?
Gavin Newsom
26.1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
10.4%
Pete Buttigieg
7.4%
Other
43.5%
4 others
15 comments
42 forecasters
Will a prominent Dem seek asylum before Jan 20, 2029?
7%
chance
75 comments
183 forecasters
Trump in power beyond 2028?
2.5%
chance
0 comments
30 forecasters
Democrat wins 2026 gubernatorial election in these states?
Ohio
44.5%
Nevada
53%
Kansas
34%
Iowa
58%
13 others
5 comments
36 forecasters
Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before Jan 21, 2029?
25%
chance