37 forecasters

Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires?

Jack Smith (special counsel)result: No

Barack Obamaresult: No

Fani Willis (Fulton Co. DA)result: No

Jack Smith (special counsel)

Barack Obama

Fani Willis (Fulton Co. DA)

Authors:

Opened:

Jun 29, 2024

Closes:

Jan 19, 2025

Resolved:

Feb 1, 2025

2024-2025 Leaderboard

How Donald Trump is making America politically violent again

Raw Story•Sep 16, 2025

Trump's tangled history with the Royal family as he meets his 'friend' King Charles

Daily Mail•Sep 16, 2025

The D Brief: F-35s in Puerto Rico; 2nd Russian drone over NATO; Army Pacific’s tech tryouts; Typhon’s Japan debut; And a bit more.

Defense One•Sep 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?

Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?