0.5Gt CO2 removed by rock weathering by 2040?

conditional

condition

Cheap bio additive ↑ rock weathering 30%?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

0.5Gt CO2 removed by rock weathering by 2040?

60%

0.5Gt CO2 removed by rock weathering by 2040?

20%

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Cheap bio additive ↑ rock weathering 30%?	0.5Gt CO2 removed by rock weathering by 2040?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 60%

Forecast Timeline

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if No

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Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jul 3, 2024

Closes:

Dec 30, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jun 30, 2040

Synthetic Biology at Scale

Environment & Climate

Natural Sciences

Technology

Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?

14%

Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?

10%

When will direct air carbon capture tech cost <$50 (2020 USD) per ton of CO2?

Jun 2040

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jul 3, 2024

Closes:

Dec 30, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jun 30, 2040

Synthetic Biology at Scale

Environment & Climate

Natural Sciences

Technology

Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?

14%

Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?

10%

When will direct air carbon capture tech cost <$50 (2020 USD) per ton of CO2?

Jun 2040