266 comments

329 forecasters

Will Israel invade Lebanon before October 1, 2024?

15%chance

15%chance

Ambiguous

Ambiguous

The community gave this a 15% chance, and it resolved Ambiguous.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jul 16, 2024

Closes:

Oct 1, 2024

Resolved:

Oct 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 18, 2024

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Israeli Strikes in Southern Lebanon Kill Two Since Sunday

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Southern Lebanon residents describe hardships under Israeli military occupation

PBS NewsHour•Sep 15, 2025

One Killed in Israeli Strike on Southern Lebanon, Strikes Also Reported in Bekaa Valley

AntiWar•Sep 12, 2025

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