First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

conditional

condition

Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Jan 2052

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Mar 2035

1 comment1

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Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031?	First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?
if yes	My Prediction: -
if no	My Prediction: -

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CDF

	<Dec 2019	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2100
community	4.0%	Feb 2040	Jan 2052	Feb 2064	2.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<Dec 2019	4.0%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	Feb 2040	—
median	Jan 2052	—
upper 75%	Feb 2064	—
Upper bound
>2100	2.1%	—

PDF

CDF

	<Dec 2019	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2100
community	4.0%	Feb 2040	Jan 2052	Feb 2064	2.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<Dec 2019	4.0%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	Feb 2040	—
median	Jan 2052	—
upper 75%	Feb 2064	—
Upper bound
>2100	2.1%	—

Forecast Timeline

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if No

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Authors:

BrunoParga

Opened:

Oct 10, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2100

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Will renewable energy exceed 55% of global electricity generation before 2030, according to Our World in Data?

Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?

77%

Will there be a year before 2074 when the percentage of renewable energy supported by space-based power systems is greater than that supported by earth-based power generation systems?

Authors:

BrunoParga

Opened:

Oct 10, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2100

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Will renewable energy exceed 55% of global electricity generation before 2030, according to Our World in Data?

Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?

77%

Will there be a year before 2074 when the percentage of renewable energy supported by space-based power systems is greater than that supported by earth-based power generation systems?