Question

Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?

Resolved:No

58 comments58

Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction

(4.2% - 10%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

0.0

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jul 9, 2024

Closes:

Jul 10, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 10, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Are Trump’s tariffs pushing rivals India and China closer together?

Independent•Aug 28, 2025

Is Nuclear Disarmament on Cards For Russia, China, North Korea?

Newsweek•Aug 28, 2025

India-Pakistan missile race heats up, but China in crosshairs, too

Al Jazeera•Aug 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?

When will Australia commission its first nuclear-powered submarine?

Oct 2039

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

7.7%

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jul 9, 2024

Closes:

Jul 10, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 10, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Are Trump’s tariffs pushing rivals India and China closer together?

Independent•Aug 28, 2025

Is Nuclear Disarmament on Cards For Russia, China, North Korea?

Newsweek•Aug 28, 2025

India-Pakistan missile race heats up, but China in crosshairs, too

Al Jazeera•Aug 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?

When will Australia commission its first nuclear-powered submarine?

Oct 2039

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

7.7%