M

Question

Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?

Resolved :No
45
Total Forecasters29
Community Prediction30%

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 30%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
0.0
Community Peer Score
0.0
median 30.0%mean 27.7%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Authors:
Tom_Metaculus
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Include Bots:Yes
Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Comments

? comments