46 comments
29 forecasters
Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?
30%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 30% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jul 10, 2024
Closes:Jul 11, 2024
Resolved:Oct 2, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 11, 2024
Include Bots:Yes
Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?
15% chance
31
Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?
4% chance
261
Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?
49% chance
87