Question

Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Yoav Gallant?

Resolved:No

46 comments46

Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction

55%

(29% - 70%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 55%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jul 11, 2024

Closes:

Jul 12, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 30, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 12, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Will Rodrigo Duterte be convicted of any crime by the International Criminal Court by 2030?

80%

Will Israel be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case by the ICJ before January 1, 2027?

35%

Will the ICJ find that Israel committed genocide?

33%

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jul 11, 2024

Closes:

Jul 12, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 30, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 12, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Will Rodrigo Duterte be convicted of any crime by the International Criminal Court by 2030?

80%

Will Israel be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case by the ICJ before January 1, 2027?

35%

Will the ICJ find that Israel committed genocide?

33%