31 forecasters

Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024?

60%chance

60%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 60% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jul 11, 2024

Closes:

Jul 12, 2024

Resolved:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 12, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

US Reacts to Confrontation Between China and Treaty Ally

Newsweek•Sep 17, 2025

China accuses Philippines of ship collision near disputed shoal in South China Sea

CBS•Sep 17, 2025

China Attacks Philippine Ships with Water Cannons in South China Sea

Breitbart•Sep 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch