Question

Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024?

Resolved:No

50 comments50

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction

60%

(34.5% - 67.5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

0.0

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jul 11, 2024

Closes:

Jul 12, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 12, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

China decries Taiwanese foreign minister’s visit to the Philippines

PBS NewsHour•Aug 31, 2025

China protests Taiwan foreign minister’s visit to the Philippines

Associated Press•Aug 30, 2025

China Threatens US Ally With 'Consequences'

Newsweek•Aug 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

15%

Will China settle its South China Sea maritime boundary dispute with any other state by 2030?

27%

Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?

25%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jul 11, 2024

Closes:

Jul 12, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 12, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

China decries Taiwanese foreign minister’s visit to the Philippines

PBS NewsHour•Aug 31, 2025

China protests Taiwan foreign minister’s visit to the Philippines

Associated Press•Aug 30, 2025

China Threatens US Ally With 'Consequences'

Newsweek•Aug 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

15%

Will China settle its South China Sea maritime boundary dispute with any other state by 2030?

27%

Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?

25%