Question

Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024?

Resolved:No

50 comments50

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction

60%

(34.5% - 67.5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jul 11, 2024

Closes:

Jul 12, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 12, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Footage Shows China Firing Water Cannon at US Ally Near Disputed Territory

Newsweek•Jun 23, 2025

China, Philippines report encounter in South China Sea

•Jun 22, 2025

Pan-Pacific Tensions Heat Up in Geopolitical Power Vacuum

PJ Media•Jun 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

18%

Will China settle its South China Sea maritime boundary dispute with any other state by 2030?

45%

Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?

20%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jul 11, 2024

Closes:

Jul 12, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 12, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Footage Shows China Firing Water Cannon at US Ally Near Disputed Territory

Newsweek•Jun 23, 2025

China, Philippines report encounter in South China Sea

•Jun 22, 2025

Pan-Pacific Tensions Heat Up in Geopolitical Power Vacuum

PJ Media•Jun 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

18%

Will China settle its South China Sea maritime boundary dispute with any other state by 2030?

45%

Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?

20%