Question

Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥15 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?

Resolved:No

65 comments65

Total Forecasters34

Community Prediction

26%

(16.8% - 45%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 26%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

0.0

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jul 12, 2024

Closes:

Jul 13, 2024

Resolves:

Aug 11, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 13, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Will the decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the US to Romania be overturned before 2026?

0.7%

Will the Tennis be part of the 2044 Summer Olympics?

90%

When will an open-source AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

18 Jul 2026

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jul 12, 2024

Closes:

Jul 13, 2024

Resolves:

Aug 11, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 13, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Will the decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the US to Romania be overturned before 2026?

0.7%

Will the Tennis be part of the 2044 Summer Olympics?

90%

When will an open-source AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

18 Jul 2026