20 comments
160 forecasters
Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?
25%chance
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Authors:
Opened:Feb 9, 2019
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 10, 2019
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?
3% chance
54
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?
23% chance
225
When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?
Sep 2045
(Dec 2031 - Apr 2067)
Sep 2045
(Dec 2031 - Apr 2067)
15 forecasters