162 forecasters

Will French president Emmanuel Macron call another snap legislative election before 2026?

40%chance

5 pp this week

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

YellowSpectacular

Opened:

Jul 16, 2024

Closes:

Dec 29, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 19, 2024

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Marine Le Pen exploring various routes to clear path to presidential run, despite electoral ban

Independent•Sep 13, 2025

France drifts into political turmoil as another prime minister is ousted

PBS NewsHour•Sep 9, 2025

Why is France on the brink of collapse – again?

Independent•Sep 9, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Who will be elected President of France in 2027?

Édouard Philippe

Jordan Bardella

275 forecasters

Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?

Together for the Republic

No Prime Minister

145 forecasters