Question

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before Sept 30, 2024?

Resolved:No

49 comments49

Total Forecasters34

Community Prediction

8.6%

(5% - 10%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 8.6%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jul 15, 2024

Closes:

Jul 16, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 16, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Taiwan Is Rushing to Make Its Own Drones Before It’s Too Late

Wired•Jun 23, 2025

Taiwan is 'of course' a country, president says in rebuke to China

•Jun 23, 2025

Taiwan is 'of course' a country, president says in rebuke to China

•Jun 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

51%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

15%

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

0.1%

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jul 15, 2024

Closes:

Jul 16, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 16, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Taiwan Is Rushing to Make Its Own Drones Before It’s Too Late

Wired•Jun 23, 2025

Taiwan is 'of course' a country, president says in rebuke to China

•Jun 23, 2025

Taiwan is 'of course' a country, president says in rebuke to China

•Jun 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

51%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

15%

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

0.1%