34 forecasters

Will Israel invade Lebanon before October 1, 2024?

30%chance

30%chance

Ambiguous

Ambiguous

The community gave this a 30% chance, and it resolved Ambiguous.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jul 17, 2024

Closes:

Jul 18, 2024

Resolved:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 18, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

One Killed in Israeli Strike on Southern Lebanon, Strikes Also Reported in Bekaa Valley

AntiWar•Sep 12, 2025

Mapped: All the countries Israel has attacked in the Middle East since 7 October

Independent•Sep 11, 2025

Mapped: All the countries Israel has attacked in the Middle East since 7 October

Independent•Sep 11, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch