Question

Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, be less than 300 herds?

Resolved:Yes

60 comments60

Total Forecasters34

Community Prediction

60%

(39% - 70%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jul 17, 2024

Closes:

Jul 18, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 18, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

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Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

7.4%

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

66%

Will the USDA's Center for Veterinary Biologics grant a license for a highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 vaccine in dairy cattle before July 1, 2025?

15%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jul 17, 2024

Closes:

Jul 18, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 18, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Pandemic preparedness ‘dramatically eroding’ under Trump, experts say

Guardian•Jun 20, 2025

Ducks return to Long Island farm that lost entire flock to bird flu

New York Post•Jun 19, 2025

Long Island’s last duck farm is quacking again after losing its entire flock to the bird flu

Associated Press•Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

7.4%

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

66%

Will the USDA's Center for Veterinary Biologics grant a license for a highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 vaccine in dairy cattle before July 1, 2025?

15%