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36 forecasters

36 forecasters

AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by Sept 30, 2024?

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69 comments530 forecasters

At least 1 Nuclear Detonation in War by 2050

7 comments27 forecasters

Date of First Nuclear Detonation

Current estimate

35 comments193 forecasters

No Non-Test Nuclear Detonations before 2035

7 comments61 forecasters

US Fatality from Nuclear Weapon Detonation

0 comments53 forecasters

Total Nuclear Disarmament before 2075

5 comments47 forecasters

Number of Nuclear Detonations by 2050

15 comments287 forecasters

GC to be caused by nuclear war, if it occurs?

0 comments24 forecasters

First Detonation by 2050 Inadvertent