Question

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by Sept 30, 2024?

Resolved:No

54 comments54

Total Forecasters36

Community Prediction

3.5%

(2% - 5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 3.5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

0.0

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jul 17, 2024

Closes:

Jul 18, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 18, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Is Nuclear Disarmament on Cards For Russia, China, North Korea?

Newsweek•Aug 28, 2025

China Responds to Trump Nuclear Weapons Push

Newsweek•Aug 27, 2025

More than 2,000 nuclear weapons have been detonated in the past 80 years. Their effects still linger around the world

CNN•Aug 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

25%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

Nov 2035

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jul 17, 2024

Closes:

Jul 18, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 18, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Is Nuclear Disarmament on Cards For Russia, China, North Korea?

Newsweek•Aug 28, 2025

China Responds to Trump Nuclear Weapons Push

Newsweek•Aug 27, 2025

More than 2,000 nuclear weapons have been detonated in the past 80 years. Their effects still linger around the world

CNN•Aug 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

25%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

Nov 2035

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%