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11
162
forecasters
5
11 comments
162 forecasters
Five Years After AGI
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Five years after AGI, will humans be extinct?
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1%
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9 comments
84 forecasters
CTs AI Extinction Before 2100
3.5%
chance
7 comments
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Date of AI-Driven Human Extinction
Current estimate
Apr 2048
12 comments
48 forecasters
5Y after AGI, life satisfaction?
Current estimate
4.79 score
22 comments
329 forecasters
AI catastrophe to cause (near) extinction
30%
chance
4 comments
98 forecasters
5Y after AGI, radical life extension?
53%
chance
9 comments
85 forecasters
5Y after AGI, human mind uploading?
5%
chance
2 comments
40 forecasters
5Y after AGI, long reflection underway?
10%
chance
19 comments
108 forecasters
Existential risk from AGI vs AGI timelines
2022-10-10 to 2024-12-31
20%
2025-01-01 to 2029-12-31
40%
2030-01-01 to 2039-12-31
28%
2040-01-01 to 2059-12-31
15%
2060-01-01 to 2099-12-31
9.3%