Question

Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025?

Resolved:No

42 comments42

Total Forecasters42

Community Prediction

19%

(5% - 30%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 19%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

14.7

Community Baseline Score

60.5

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jul 20, 2024

Closes:

Jun 30, 2025

Resolves:

Jul 10, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 23, 2024

Metaculus

Artificial Intelligence

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

90%

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Sep 2030

What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?

74.7