Question

Will the US unemployment rate be above 4.1% in August 2024?

Resolved:Yes

56 comments56

Total Forecasters32

Community Prediction

58%

(40% - 65%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 58%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jul 19, 2024

Closes:

Jul 20, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 6, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 20, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Unemployment rises to 4% as Missouri adds 3,700 jobs in May

•Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?

35%

What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years?

4.38

What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months?

4.28

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jul 19, 2024

Closes:

Jul 20, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 6, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 20, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Unemployment rises to 4% as Missouri adds 3,700 jobs in May

•Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?

35%

What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years?

4.38

What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months?

4.28