36 comments
206 forecasters
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
4%chance
Forecast Timeline
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Authors:
Opened:Jul 17, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 25, 2024
How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?
89.7 cases
(72.2 - 148)
89.7 cases
(72.2 - 148)
53 forecasters
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
1% chance
97
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?
62% chance
56