40 forecasters

Will at least 5 major hurricanes occur in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season before Sept 30, 2024?

72%chance

72%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 72% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jul 23, 2024

Closes:

Jul 24, 2024

Resolved:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 24, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Maps show the forecast track of Tropical Storm Gabrielle, the 7th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season

CBS•Sep 17, 2025

Hurricane Gabrielle threat looms in Atlantic as forecasters raise formation odds

Daily Mail•Sep 16, 2025

Hurricane season's statistical peak is today. So why has the Atlantic been so quiet?

CBS•Sep 10, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch