Question

Will the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and August 31, 2024 exceed 3.5 per 100,000 people?

Resolved:Yes

60 comments60

Total Forecasters38

Community Prediction

49%

(40% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 49%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jul 23, 2024

Closes:

Jul 24, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 20, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 24, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Will there be two or more COVID-19 hospitalization waves in the United States in at least one of the 2028 and 2029 respiratory disease seasons?

34%

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

43%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jul 23, 2024

Closes:

Jul 24, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 20, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 24, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Will there be two or more COVID-19 hospitalization waves in the United States in at least one of the 2028 and 2029 respiratory disease seasons?

34%

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

43%