• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
1
44 forecasters
8
1 comment
44 forecasters
Elections
condition

2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Resolved:Yes
44 forecasters
if yes
if no

2024 US Presidential Election Winner?

45%
45%
Resolved:Yes

2024 US Presidential Election Winner?

60%
60%
Resolved:Annulled
if Yes(Yes)
if No60%
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestionsTournamentsTournaments for AI botsFutureEval
ServicesLaunch a TournamentPrivate InstancesPro Forecasters
CompanyAboutCareersFAQ
ResourcesForecasting ResourcesFor JournalistsAPI
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
11 comments240 forecasters

Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for President of the United States?

Gavin Newsom26.1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez10.4%
Pete Buttigieg7.4%
Other43.5%
4 others
16 comments161 forecasters

Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

61%chance
5 comments50 forecasters

Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election?

Democratic Party59.9%
Republican Party40%
Other0.1%
14 comments247 forecasters

Who will be the 2028 Republican nominee for President of the United States?

JD Vance44.8%
Ron DeSantis4.7%
Marco Rubio17.7%
Other27%
4 others
5 comments30 forecasters

Will a woman be elected US president by 2044?

60%chance
2 comments93 forecasters

Markets give >20% to a twice-elected president's renomination in these years?

2021-2022result: No
2023-2024result: No
2025-20264%
2027-202815%
7 comments24 forecasters

Will the next U.S. President have a beard or mustache?

13%chance
75 comments183 forecasters

Trump in power beyond 2028?

2.5%chance