Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025?

condition

Israel to Invade Lebanon?

Closed

27 forecasters

if yes

if no

Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025?

99%

Resolved:Ambiguous

Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025?

95%

Resolved:Ambiguous

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27 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Israel to Invade Lebanon?	Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 99%

What was the final result? Ambiguous

if Yes

if No

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Jul 16, 2024

Closes:

Oct 1, 2024

Resolved:

Oct 1, 2024

Conditional Cup

Geopolitics

2024 Leaderboard

Hezbollah warns Gulf countries are next if Israel defeats militants

Associated Press•Sep 10, 2025

Israeli Drone Strike Wounds One South of Beirut

AntiWar•Sep 10, 2025

Israeli Airstrikes in Northeast Lebanon Kill Five, Wound Five

AntiWar•Sep 9, 2025

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Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

144 forecasters

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

9% chance

Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?

2% chance

139

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Jul 16, 2024

Closes:

Oct 1, 2024

Resolved:

Oct 1, 2024

Conditional Cup

Geopolitics

2024 Leaderboard

Hezbollah warns Gulf countries are next if Israel defeats militants

Associated Press•Sep 10, 2025

Israeli Drone Strike Wounds One South of Beirut

AntiWar•Sep 10, 2025

Israeli Airstrikes in Northeast Lebanon Kill Five, Wound Five

AntiWar•Sep 9, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

144 forecasters

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

9% chance

Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?

2% chance

139